ProcuraCost 2.1
Model and assumptions
The model compares a formal/sequential path with an adaptive/compliant path for the same purchase. Both share the same legal and control boundary.
What the studies estimate
Szucs (2024) estimates, in the structural specification, about a 6% price increase and about 10% lower average productivity of selected contractors under discretion; the effect is identified on contracts below a threshold of roughly 25 million HUF. Beuve, Moszoro and Spiller (2023) estimate 0.077–0.105 additional formal amendments per contract-year for a simultaneous one-standard-deviation increase in each of the seven rigidity categories, in French car-park contracts. This is not an event probability.
What the model assumes
Competition and contract profiles, effort, technology and bypass rates are scenario calibrations. They are not measurements of Polish organizations. TCO is zero centrally and stress-tested at 0–15%. Read every result with its low/central/high range; that range is not a confidence interval.
