ProcuraCost 2.1

Model assumptions and uncertainty

The model compares a formal/sequential path with an adaptive/compliant path for the same purchase. It does not assume a winner. Weakly evidenced parameters are scenarios, not empirical findings.

Supplier selection

A 2–9% price-premium scenario is further scaled by residual competition risk and context. Szucs anchors the 6% point.

Formal amendments

0–0.105 amendment per contract-year; frequency depends only on the contract-rigidity profile.

TCO and bypass

TCO: 0% centrally, with a three-year stress test to 15%. Base bypass rates of 1–30% are further scaled by system controls. These are assumptions.

Control example: Vehicle Fleet Procurement

Central formal − adaptive difference: PLN 104,081. Scenario range: PLN -39,318662,398; the sign is not robust.

See the methodology for equations, parameter provenance, and transfer limits. Inputs and results can be exported from the calculator.

Paweł Mamcarz
MK
MB
TS
RM
Procurement Collective